Financial TimesFinancial Times

China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever

By Ruchir Sharma

24 Oct 2022 · 3 min read

Editor's Note

We've heard a lot over the years about the potential of the Chinese economy. There are, however, several factors that could hold back growth, according to Ruchir Sharma of the Financial Times.

The writer is chair of Rockefeller International

As he embarks on a third term, Xi Jinping’s goal is to make China a mid-level developed country in the next decade, which implies that the economy will need to expand at a rate of around 5 per cent. But underlying trends — bad demographics, heavy debt and declining productivity growth — suggest the country’s overall growth potential is about half that rate.

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