Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

Japan’s long-awaited return to geopolitics

By Jeffrey W. Hornung

06 Feb 2023 · 5 min read

Editor's Note

After World War II, Japan largely forsook military power and embraced pacifism. Now, that's all changing fast as the country vows to flex its muscle in Asia and beyond, according to this FP analysis.

In geopolitics, rarely do we realize that a tectonic shift is taking place the moment it is happening. There are a few exceptions: the Soviet Union’s launch of the world’s first space satellite, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the 9/11 attacks. These moments were historical inflection points that were plain for all to see.

Russia’s war in Ukraine, which marks the return of naked, World War II-style aggression to Europe, is surely another such inflection point. But there is a second, less-noticed shift taking place right now that has at least as much power to alter history: the return of Japan as a major geopolitical actor. In the span of only one month from mid-December 2022 to mid-January of this year, Japan revised large parts of its post-1945 security posture and replaced it with a new strategy that—if implemented—would create a more robust and forward-leaning Japan. Tokyo’s policy shifts may signal a Japan that is not only more willing and capable of involving itself in geopolitical issues beyond its own narrow, defensive interests but also more likely to act in ways commensurate with its strategic position, regional interests, and economic might.

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