Project SyndicateProject Syndicate

Sleepwalking into a global recession

By Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng

26 Apr 2023 · 4 min read

Editor's Note

A prolonged economic downturn may be unavoidable, Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng write in PS. However, the G7 countries can soften the blow by coordinating their fiscal and monetary policies.

HONG KONG – The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings in Washington this month amid growing fears of a prolonged worldwide recession and following a series of reports predicting that global economic growth will continue to slow.

Earlier in April, a World Bank book estimated that global GDP growth will fall below 2% this year and increase to 3% in 2024, before weakening to 2.2% by 2030, down sharply from the 3.5% average rate in the 2000s. The Bank foresees a “prolonged period of weakness” for the global economy following further declines in investment and productivity.

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