Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

What AI can tell us about Putin’s next steps in Ukraine

By Stanley McChrystal and Anshu Roy

20 Jun 2023 · 5 min read

informed Summary

  1. AI-based models have been useful in anticipating Russian aggression against Ukraine and informing Western policymakers.

Artificial intelligence has been an extraordinarily useful tool in anticipating Russian aggression against Ukraine and making sense of the tumult facing the country, with all of the war’s implications for the global order. As we described in Foreign Policy, AI-based models provided a particularly chilling and clear prediction that Russia would invade at a time when the likelihood of war was still being contentiously debated in Washington and other Western capitals.

A year and a half later, we are using our AI digital nervous system to provide the same kind of valuable foresight into the ongoing war, using mathematical modeling, deep learning, and the latest breakthroughs in large language models. AI is helping us to cut through a kaleidoscope of disinformation and make new predictions about the path ahead, informing and aiding Western policymakers as they try to make the right decisions.

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